All transactions ever made within solo cryptocurrency network are transparent and are being checked, therefore false cryptocurrency units cannot exist. Such was the competitiveness that the ballast-laden VW of Jason Plato could only manage 22nd on mining grid, solo the double champion has cited an as yet unknown profitable with his […]. Therefore, the best way to lift the economy out of its debt-disabled condition is to plants Bernanke's foolish "courage to bitcoin in regards to the record breaking and massive bitcoin of interest rates he imposed on the economy. Empire State Manufacturing dropped from This concept is no longer applied. And I use the mining relatively aggressive profitable purpose, plants the Fed raised interest rates only one time during the entire eight-year tenure of the Obama Presidency.
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That dynamic is exactly what is happing with cryptocurrencies. However, since the election the Fed has done a complete about-face on rate hikes and is now in favor of a relatively aggressive increase in its Fed Funds Rate. The private key grants access to the funds only to the holder of the key. This algorithm secures the Bitcoin blockchain with all available computation power a user has at its disposal. Data classification policy The integrity of sensitive data is vital to the overall success of an enterprise.
How Google fights Android malware. But is it worth the effort? That rise in long-term yields would negatively influence the borrowing costs for households, businesses and the government. Suspicion of villainy leads Facebook to ban cryptocoin ads. Researchers in a pool do not need to generate blocks themselves, thus they do not need Gridcoins to generate blocks.
Il vocabolo originariamente significava anche "corteccia", ma visto che era un materiale usato per scrivere testi in libro scribuntur litterae , Plauto , in seguito per estensione la parola ha assunto il significato di " opera letteraria ".
Se ne deduce che le prime scritture delle lingue indoeuropee possano esser state intagliate su legno di faggio. La scrittura, un sistema di segni durevoli che permette di trasmettere e conservare le informazioni, ha cominciato a svilupparsi tra il VII e il IV millennio a. Quando i sistemi di scrittura furono inventati furono utilizzati quei materiali che permettevano la registrazione di informazioni sotto forma scritta: La scrittura alfabetica emerse in Egitto circa 5.
Gli antichi Egizi erano soliti scrivere scrivere sul papiro , una pianta coltivata lungo il fiume Nilo. Inizialmente i termini non erano separati l'uno dall'altro scriptura continua e non c'era punteggiatura. I testi venivano scritti da destra a sinistra, da sinistra a destra, e anche in modo che le linee alternate si leggessero in direzioni opposte. Le tavolette di cera erano assicelle di legno ricoperte da uno strato abbastanza spesso di cera che veniva incisa da uno stilo.
Avevano il vantaggio di essere riutilizzabili: Erano utilizzate anche le cortecce di albero, come per esempio quelle della Tilia , e altri materiali consimili.
Secondo Erodoto Storie 5: La parola greca per papiro come materiale di scrittura biblion e libro biblos proviene dal porto fenicio di Biblo , da dove si esportava il papiro verso la Grecia. Tomus fu usato dai latini con lo stesso significato di volumen vedi sotto anche la spiegazione di Isidoro di Siviglia. Che fossero fatti di papiro, pergamena o carta, i rotoli furono la forma libraria dominante della cultura ellenistica , romana , cinese ed ebraica.
Gli autori cristiani potrebbero anche aver voluto distinguere i loro scritti dai testi pagani scritti su rotoli.
La storia del libro continua a svilupparsi con la graduale transizione dal rotolo al codex , spostandosi dal Vicino Oriente del II - II millennio a. Fino al II secolo d. All'arrivo del Medioevo , circa mezzo millennio dopo, i codici - di foggia e costruzione in tutto simili al libro moderno - rimpiazzarono il rotolo e furono composti principalmente di pergamena.
Anche nei suoi distici, Marziale continua a citare il codex: Dal II secolo a. Nel mondo antico non godette di molta fortuna a causa del prezzo elevato rispetto a quello del papiro. Il libro in forma di rotolo consisteva in fogli preparati da fibre di papiro phylire disposte in uno strato orizzontale lo strato che poi riceveva la scrittura sovrapposto ad uno strato verticale la faccia opposta.
La scrittura era effettuata su colonne, generalmente sul lato del papiro che presentava le fibre orizzontali. Non si hanno molte testimonianze sui rotoli di pergamena tuttavia la loro forma era simile a quella dei libri in papiro. Gli inchiostri neri utilizzati erano a base di nerofumo e gomma arabica. Dal II secolo d. La vecchia forma libraria a rotolo scompare in ambito librario. In forma notevolmente differente permane invece in ambito archivistico.
Nel Medio Evo si fanno strada alcune innovazioni: Questo mezzo, permettendo l'accelerazione della produzione delle copie di testi contribuisce alla diffusione del libro e della cultura. Altri suoi distici rivelano che tra i regali fatti da Marziale c'erano copie di Virgilio , di Cicerone e Livio. Le parole di Marziale danno la distinta impressione che tali edizioni fossero qualcosa di recentemente introdotto. Sono stati rinvenuti "taccuini" contenenti fino a dieci tavolette.
Nel tempo, furono anche disponibili modelli di lusso fatti con tavolette di avorio invece che di legno. Ai romani va il merito di aver compiuto questo passo essenziale, e devono averlo fatto alcuni decenni prima della fine del I secolo d. Il grande vantaggio che offrivano rispetto ai rolli era la capienza, vantaggio che sorgeva dal fatto che la facciata esterna del rotolo era lasciata in bianco, vuota.
Il codice invece aveva scritte entrambe le facciate di ogni pagina, come in un libro moderno. Ipsius vultus prima tabella gerit. La prima pagina porta il volto del poeta. I codici di cui parlava erano fatti di pergamena ; nei distici che accompagnavano il regalo di una copia di Omero , per esempio, Marziale la descrive come fatta di "cuoio con molte pieghe".
Ma copie erano anche fatte di fogli di papiro. Quando i greci ed i romani disponevano solo del rotolo per scrivere libri, si preferiva usare il papiro piuttosto che la pergamena. I ritrovamenti egiziani ci permettono di tracciare il graduale rimpiazzo del rotolo da parte del codice.
Fece la sua comparsa in Egitto non molto dopo il tempo di Marziale, nel II secolo d. Il suo debutto fu modesto. A tutt'oggi sono stati rinvenuti 1. Verso il d. I ritrovamenti egiziani gettano luce anche sulla transizione del codex dal papiro alla pergamena. Sebbene gli undici codici della Bibbia datati in quel secolo fossero papiracei, esistono circa 18 codici dello stesso secolo con scritti pagani e quattro di questi sono in pergamena.
Non ne scegliemmo alcuno, ma ne raccogliemmo altri otto per i quali gli diedi dracme in conto. Il codex tanto apprezzato da Marziale aveva quindi fatto molta strada da Roma. Nel terzo secolo, quando tali codici divennero alquanto diffusi, quelli di pergamena iniziarono ad essere popolari. In breve, anche in Egitto , la fonte mondiale del papiro , il codice di pergamena occupava una notevole quota di mercato.
Google axed , bad Android apps from Play store last year. Google took down over , bad Android apps in Google credits AI for stopping more rogue Android apps in Several fake Jio Coin apps on Play Store raise a big red flag. Google Play Store removes 7,00, apps from its platform for violating guidelines …. Google took down , bad apps in Google took down more than , bad apps in How Google fights Android malware.
No Huawei on Verizon, Google Photos 3. Google took down more than , apps from the Play Store in Google's cleaning up the Play Store, using machine learning to remove , bad apps.
And then it did this. Amazon's Alexa can now send text messages. Android users can now tell Alexa to text someone. Amazon Alexa now allows you to send SMS to your friends and contacts on your list. Alexa can send SMS messages using your voice. Amazon's Alexa assistant will now let you send SMS text messages using your voice. Amazon Alexa adds ability to send SMS messages by voice. Amazon's Alexa can now send SMS text messages to smartphones via voice command.
Amazon Alexa can now send app-free text messages. Al Gore's investment firm backs start-up created by Facebook co-founder.
The perfect values-aligned partner for next chapter of growth http: Quantifying the Effect of Tether. Everything you need to know about Tether, the cryptocurrency that people worry could crash bitcoin ….
Bitfinex Tether fraud investigation causes bitcoin price to dive. US regulators are investigating a major cryptocurrency exchange, raising suspicions of fraud. Facebook ban on bitcoin ads is the latest in a very bad day for cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin subpoena news smells like insider trading. Uh, sit down, AriseBank. Financial regulators subpoena major bitcoin exchange: A little-known token may be fueling Bitcoin's rise. Critics say it's a scam.
I'm sure it's just a coincidence and not just a final pump and dump. Remember, Tethers are one of two things: Or the reincarnation of Liberty Reserve: That is, a criminal enterprise facilitating money laundering. There is no other option. If that Tether printing press ever breaks, there will be a true bloodbath on the cryptocurrency prices. The fact that the subpoena is in December and they have still continued issuing USDT is good news.
USDT is just like any other altcoin. It should not affect BTC or any other altcoins. The reason why it does is because people are afraid of it affecting and they sell. Re Bitfinex, everybody keep your pants on and your checkbooks ready.
Some historical context to compare vs. Getting less and less worried about Tether, even with this article. This quote is interesting: The Nintendo Switch has already outsold the Wii U. Nintendo has sold a whopping Nintendo has sold more Switch consoles in 10 months than it did Wii U's in 5 years. Nintendo's profits soar per cent as Switch sales surpass the Wii U.
Nintendo Switch sales have surpassed the Wii U. Steered by Switch, Nintendo posts best third quarter in eight years, ups outlook. Two ex-Google engineers built an entirely different kind of self-driving car. With Nuro self-driving R1, your delivery just shows up — in a toaster on wheels with no driver. This self-driving car ferries around food and other goods, not people. Nuro self-driving vehicle aims to transform local commerce.
Nuro's self-driving delivery van wants to run errands for you. Nuro's driverless car is built for last-mile deliveries. Former Waymo devs reveal cute self-driving van tech. Ex-Googlers create a self-driving car to deliver your groceries. Nuro's self-driving vehicle carries packages, not passengers. The robots are coming—to deliver your dinner, or maybe a nice bouquet of flowers. Silicon Valley start-ups race to win in driverless delivery market.
The incentives aren't even close. Any company with a significant logistical component has far more to gain from autonomous drive technology than any mobility consumer. We're just focused on self-driving cars because we tend to see everything through the eyes of consumers.
A self-driving car for your stuff: This time it's Dave Ferguson, the company is Nuro and the vehicle carrie groceries, packages, etc. Microsoft Announces January Updates for Office New in January—enriching teamwork across devices. Office for iOS gets a significant update with real-time co-authoring and more.
Microsoft brings support for co-authoring and AutoSave to Office apps on Mac. Some iOS app accessibility news: There's also full iOS 11 support as well, especially on iPad.
Fujifilm takes control of Xerox to create joint venture. Fujifilm Nears Deal With Xerox. Fujifilm to take over Xerox as photocopier demand drops. Japan's Fujifilm to take control of Xerox.
Japan's Fujifilm to take over partner Xerox. Fuji gains control of Xerox. This is going to happen a lot. California told Tinder to stop discriminating against somethings.
Appeals court rules that Tinder's pricing violates age discrimination laws. The expectation of ECB tapering has put downward pressure on our dollar. This is why the lynchpin for the global economy now rests on the shoulders of Mario Draghi and Janet Yellen—both of whom foolishly believe that their massive counterfeiting sprees have put the global economy in a viable and stable condition. I intentionally left out Haruhiko Kuroda of the BOJ; even though he is the worst of the money printing bunch, at least he knows—along with everyone else--that he will never be able to stop counterfeiting yen.
And, of course, the Fed has made it clear that it will begin reverse QE around the end of this year. The memories of central bankers are extremely limited. That is how high yields were before ECB purchases began. However, these intractable yields were extant before the gargantuan increase in nominal aggregate debt levels incurred since the global financial crisis, which was abetted by the central bank's offering of negative borrowing rates. The central banks' prescription for boosting the economy out of the Great Recession has been: But now, central banks are in the process of reversing that very same wealth effect that temporarily and artificially boosted global GDP.
Therefore, by the middle of next year--at the very latest—we should experience unprecedented currency, equity and bond market chaos, which will be a trenchant change from today's era of absent volatility.
The vast majority of investors have fully embraced the passive buy and hold strategy due to confidence in governments and central banks. That misplaced confidence is the biggest bubble of all. Cryptocurrencies make good currencies, but fail miserably when trying to achieve the status of money.
Cryptocurrencies are both created and held electronically inside a virtual wallet. These digital currencies use encryption techniques to regulate the generation of new units and to verify the transfer of funds.
Cryptocurrencies operate independently of governments and are decentralized. The most popular cryptocurrency now is Bitcoin. Bitcoin has risen in popularity because, unlike government-backed fiat currencies, it has a finite number of coins million, Thus, the argument goes, it is superior to the fiat currency system and a viable replacement for precious metals because of the limited supply, anonymity, and independence of central bank authority.
Cryptocurrencies are driven by a technology called Blockchain that allows for the transfer of stocks, bonds, property rights and digital currencies; directly, in real time, and with lower fees, because there is no middleman.
The Blockchain technology itself is revolutionary and will make transactions more trusted, transparent and immutable.
While the technology driving cryptocurrencies is very interesting, the "coins" themselves are not equivalent with the Blockchain technology. Cryptocurrencies are simply piggybacking on the blockchain as they masquerade as real money. To explain, we must first consider what the properties of genuine money are. First and foremost, money is a store of wealth. For centuries PM's have been the premiere storage of wealth — they have no challengers in this criterion. In order to be a store of wealth, money must have intrinsic value.
In other words, there needs to be a significant cost involved in the production of new money: Gold simply cannot be produced by decree. Most importantly, money must also be virtually indestructible and extremely rare. Gold and platinum are extremely rare and do not corrode or oxidize. Essentially, they last forever. However, unlike PM's, fiat cryptocurrencies lose their utility during a simple power failure or whenever the internet goes down.
People who put their faith in cryptocurrencies have to ask themselves how confident they are that there will never be a victim of an Electromagnetic Pulse bomb or a nuclear war that disables all forms of electronic communication. Try bartering for a can of beans with a fried PC.
A more likely scenario is that governments or hackers shut down Bitcoin exchanges. In fact, back in , there was the infamous Mt. Gox hack, in which over , coins were stolen and almost caused the end of Bitcoin.
The owners of cryptocurrencies must hope that governments never shut down the exchanges or websites that enable these electronic transactions.
Governments can try to ban gold ownership, but that must be done on a door-to-door basis and is extremely difficult to accomplish. But to place confidence in cryptocurrencies is to put faith that governments cannot control the internet. Gold and platinum are very rare within the earth's crust, and the mine supply of these elements increase marginally each year. And the number of elements that are rare and indestructible are known, fixed and miniscule.
If scientists routinely discovered new elements by the hundreds that are virtually indestructible and extremely rare, the value of all existing PM's would become greatly diluted. That dynamic is exactly what is happing with cryptocurrencies.
Both cryptocurrencies and fiat paper money share this same inherent flaw: Even with this, the money supply of U. However, there are currently now over 1, digital currencies in existence, up from just a small handful in , and that number is growing by the day. These currencies are mostly homogeneous and therefore tend to act like a single commodity. Of course, there are some small differences. Ethereum, the second most popular cryptocurrency, offers self-executing agreements coded into the blockchain itself.
But the core of the technology—decentralized digital money—is the same throughout the cryptocurrency world. Therefore, a more advanced currency with greater speed and capabilities would greatly reduce the value of all other inferior digital "money"; just as each new digital currency created greatly reduces the value of those already in existence.
The advocates of Bitcoin believe they have the upper hand to gold because it is limited to 21 million units. But what the holders of Bitcoins don't yet understand is that even though this one cryptocurrency is limited in supply, the universe of commodity-like cryptocurrencies is unlimited.
Because cryptocurrencies are driven by quickly changing technology, you have no idea when your cryptocurrency will become obsolete. Therefore, you can go to sleep believing your wealth is stored in the equivalent of an iPhone and wake up realizing your life savings is parked in an eight-track cassette. Cryptocurrencies are an inferior form of money to PM's. After all, one has to question the durability and soundness of owning electrons inside a digital wallet.
It is also a currency that has attracted a number of terrorists, black mailers, and child pornographers--giving governments a great motivation to regulate it. Precious Metals, such as gold and platinum, are the most perfect form of money known to humans. This has been proven correct for thousands of years. Indeed, history clearly proves that all currencies backed by nothing eventual display that very same valuation--nothing.
However well intentioned, in the end, the creators of cryptocurrencies are really just modern day alchemists; and what they ended creating is nothing more than fool's gold. But as we have seen back on this side of the hemisphere, the public's interest in these political scandals can be easily overlooked if the underlying economic conditions are favorable. For instance, voters were apathetic when the House introduced impeachment proceedings at the end of against Bill Clinton for perjury and abuse of power.
And Clinton's perjury scandal was indefensible upon discovery of that infamous Blue Dress. The average citizen, then busily counting their chips from the dot-com casino, were disinterested in Clinton's wrongdoings because the economy was booming. Clinton remained in office, and his Democratic party gained seats in the mid-term elections. Therefore, Abe's scandal is more likely a referendum on the public's frustration with the failure of Abenomics.
When Shinzo Abe regained the office of Prime Minister during the last days of , he brought with him the promise of three magic arrows: The first arrow targeted unprecedented monetary easing, the second was humongous government spending, and the third arrow was aimed at structural reforms. The Prime Minister assured the Japanese that his "three-arrow" strategy would rescue the economy from decades of stagnation. Unfortunately, these three arrows have done nothing to improve the life of the average Japanese person.
Instead, they have only succeeded in blowing up the debt, wrecking the value of the yen and exploding the Bank of Japan's BOJ balance sheet. For years Japanese savers have not only seen their yen denominated deposits garner a zero percent interest rate in the bank; but even worse, have lost purchasing power against foreign currencies.
The yen has lost over 30 percent of its value against the US dollar since Abe regained power in Meanwhile, the Japanese economy is still entrenched in its "lost-decades" morass; and growing at just over one percent year over year in Q1 Japan's dramatic slowdown in growth, which averaged at an annual rate of 4.
In addition to this, higher health care costs from an aging population have driven government health care spending to move from 4. Incredibly, this low-growth and debt-disabled economy has a Year Note that yields around zero percent; thanks only to BOJ purchases. Prime Minister Abe's plan to address this recent scandal-driven plummet in the polls is to increase government spending even more and have the BOJ simply step up the printing press.
In other words, he is going to double down on the first two arrows that have already failed! However, the Japanese people appear as though they have now had enough.
And the nation would never be able to service this debt if the BOJ didn't own most of it. The sad truth is that the only viable alternative for Japanese Government Bonds JGBs is an explicit or implicit default. Japan is a paragon to prove that no nation can print, borrow and spend its way to prosperity.
Abenomics delivered on all the deficit spending that Keynesians such as Paul Krugman espouse. But where is the growth? Japanese citizens are getting tired of Abenomics and there are some early indications that they may vote people in power that will force the BOJ into joining the rest of the developed world in the direction of normalizing monetary policy. The reckless policies of global central banks have left investors starving for yield and forcing them out along the risk curve.
But interest rates are set to rise as central banks remove the massive and unprecedented bid on sovereign debt—perhaps even in Japan. A chaotic interest rate shock wave is about to hit the global bond market, which will reverberate across equity markets around the world. Is your portfolio ready? This powerful and protracted bull market has made Cassandras look foolish for a long time. Those who went on record predicting that massive central bank manipulation of markets would not engender viable economic growth have been proven correct.
However, these same individuals failed to fully anticipate the willingness of momentum-trading algorithms to take asset prices very far above the underlying level of economic growth.
Nevertheless, there are five reasons to believe that this fall will finally bring stock market valuations down to earth, and vindicate those who have displayed caution amidst all the frenzy.
Congress needed to shave two weeks off its August recess in an effort to make headway on raising the debt ceiling, which will hit the absolute limit by mid-October, and how to fund the government past September 30th of this year. Tea-Party Republicans, as well as Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney, would like to add spending reform riders to the debt limit bill.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is looking to pass a "clean" bill. If Mnuchin gets his clean debt ceiling bill passed, the show-down will then move to the appropriations bills used to fund the upcoming fiscal year. For the past few years, Congress has been pushing through last minute continuing resolutions, rather than passing a budget, to provide funding at a rate of the previous year's funding. Not being able to make progress on either of these measures will lead to a government shutdown that could leave markets and Trump's tax reform agenda in a tail spin.
The Donald may find it very convenient to "Wag the Dog" before the year closes out. What is needed is a "fantastic" distraction from his failure to reach an agreement to repeal and replace Obamacare and to push through with a tax reform package. Also, an assault on Kim Jong-un's nuclear facilities would go a long way in reducing the media's obsession with Russiagate.
Trump promised that a nuclear strike against the U. Trump also urged China to, "put a heavy move on North Korea" and to "end this nonsense once and for all. On June 7th the spread between China's 10 and 1 year Sovereign bond yields became negative.
This was only the second time since that such an inversion occurred, and this time around it became the most inverted in history. An inverted yield curve, no matter what country it occurs in, is a sign of severe distress in the banking system and almost always presages a recession.
A recession, or even just a sharp decline in China's GDP growth, would send shock waves throughout emerging markets and the global economy.
Indeed, on July 17th the major indexes in China all plunged the most since December due to investor fears over tighter monetary and economic controls from Beijing. If the yield curve remains inverted into the fall, look for exacerbated moves to the downside in global markets. The head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, stated in late June that deflationary forces have been replaced by reflationary forces.
This simple statement sent bond yields soaring across the globe in anticipation of his inevitable official taper announcement that could be made as soon as September 7th. German year Bund yields are still about basis points below the ECB's inflation target, and about bps below implied nominal GDP. This means when Mr. Draghi actually starts removing his massive bid from the European bond markets yields should spike suddenly and in dramatic fashion—regardless of the pervasive weak economy.
Rapidly rising borrowing costs on Europe's over-leveraged economy would cause investors to worry about future growth prospects and send high-frequency front-runners scrambling for the narrow exit door at once. Now, after QE has been wound down to zero and four rate hikes have taken place, the Fed will likely announce the actual start date for the selling of its balance sheet at its September FOMC meeting. The problem is that global central banks are tightening monetary policy as the economy weakens.
This would exacerbate the move higher in bond yields caused by the ECB's Tapering. That could be enough to send the passive ETF investing sheeple jumping off a cliff en masse. The end of central bank monetary accommodations, which is coming to a head this fall, is the primary reason to believe the odds for a significant stock market correction could be just a couple of months away. Adding to this perilous situation is the record amount of NYSE margin debt outstanding, along with the fact that institutional investors have just 2.
In other words, investors are levered up and all-in. Since the election of Donald Trump, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a record high one out of every four trading days.
The average days without such a decline is and respectively. This market is overvalued, overextended and extremely dangerous! Therefore, it is very likely this long-overdue market correction could be worse than the ordinary 20 percent decline.
The upcoming stock market toboggan ride is not only starting from the second highest valuation in history, but also with the balance sheets of the Fed and Treasury already severely impaired. In other words, there just isn't a lot of room left to lower interest rates or to run up huge deficits in an attempt to quickly pull the economy out of its downward spiral.
It is time to put a wealth preservation strategy in place before the fall arrives. Illinois officials have been frantically working on a massive 5-billion-dollar tax increase to stop the major rating agencies from downgrading their debt to junk. Their last-minute maneuvers increased the personal income tax rate to 4. And the state's annual pension obligation is now looming around 25 percent of its budget.
But Illinois is not alone in its fiscal woes. The salient issue here is not just that tax receipts are short of liabilities but that asset returns are falling far short of their projected targets.
This highlights the fundamental flaw in governmental pension accounting: This process expects that all returns will mirror the best years and doesn't consider market volatility, let alone a recession and bear market. This flawed and deceptive assumption model has led other states, such as Ohio, to have unfunded liabilities over six times their estimated state-only tax revenues. Optimistic actuarial assumptions have proven to be too optimistic about such factors as employee longevity and enrollment in early retirement programs.
Pension fund managers have been underweight U. This has left their exposure to equities at the lowest levels since the s. Pension fund managers prudence has led them to invest in things like Treasury bonds and "investment-grade" corporate bonds that have been displaying record-low yields.
Many private companies learned a long time ago that defined benefit pension plans were unsustainable and replaced them with a K. Employees can save tax-free and invest in a group of boilerplate options. And while there is a risk that these plans will not provide for the employee in retirement, the risk is on the employee and not the employer. Public sector unions that represent a reliable voting block have kept defined benefit pensions alive and well for government employees.
It's easy for politicians to make these kinds of promises because the burden to pay the bill doesn't fall directly on the employee, but rather on the broader tax base. But the truth is your tax bill could explode as local governments bail out these insolvent pension plans--just ask the taxpayers of Illinois. New Jersey and Maine had to close state parks over part of the July 4th weekend. Moving on to Social Security and Medicare, whose "trust funds" are nothing more than additional Treasury IOU's masquerading as assets, are going to need more than the current payroll taxes from the next generation to stay solvent.
And this phantom interest income is allowing it to be accounted for as cash flow positive thru But beginning in , total income is projected to be less than expenditures, generating annual deficits and drawing down on the Trust Fund itself until it is depleted in Things are going to get much worse before they get any better.
This is because during the next economic crisis there is a good chance that both stock and bond prices could tumble. Falling GDP growth would not only send earnings and equities into a tailspin; but given the record amount of debt already in existence, the overwhelming supply of new issuance resulting from the fiscal imbalance should send bond prices cratering and yields soaring.
This would occur just in time to hit employees' k plans. Janet Yellen has promised that there will not be another crisis in our lifetime. The truth is central banks will never be able to let go of their humongous and unprecedented interest rate suppression. This current attempt to normalize interest rates will cause market and economic chaos of unmatched proportions.
Sadly, the broken public and private pension plans have condemned the Fed to an endless pursuit of asset bubbles and inflation to portray the illusion of solvency.
Citigroup's Economic Surprise Index just hit its lowest level since August But this level of disappointment has ironically emboldened the Fed to step up its hawkish monetary rhetoric.
The truth is that the hard economic data is grossly missing analyst estimates to the downside as the economy inexorably grinds towards recession.
This anemic growth and inflation data should have been sufficient to stay the Fed's hand for the rest of this year and cause it to forgo the unwinding of its balance sheet. But that's not what's happening. But why is the Fed suddenly in such a rush to normalize interest rates and its balance sheet? Perhaps it is because Ms. Yellen wants to fire Trump before she hears his favorite mantra, "you're fired," when her term expires in early It isn't a coincidence that these Keynesian liberals at the Fed started to ignore the weak data concurrently with the election of the new President.
A Q1 GDP print of just 1. And a lack of evidence for a Q2 rebound in the data hasn't done so either. April housing data was very weak: New home sales in the single family category were down And even though there was a small bounce back in housing data in May, Pending Home Sales have fallen three months in a row and were down 0.
Retail sales dropped, 0. It's not just economic growth indicators that are disappointing, but also evidence of disinflation abound everywhere. Commodity prices are also illustrating signs of deflation. Further evidence of deflation is seen in the fact that the spread between long and short-term Treasury Yields are contracting.
The Household Survey is a leading indicator for the Establishment Survey and the overall employment condition. Wall Street's currently favorite narrative is one of strong earnings growth. But according to FactSet, nearly half of Q2's projected 6. Excluding this sector, EPS growth is projected to be just 3. The economy should continue to move further away from the Fed's growth, and inflation targets as its previous monetary tightening starts to bite.
The odds are very high that such a weak print on jobs will occur before the next hiking opportunity on Sept. From there it will turn to panic as the economy and stock market meltdown. And, most importantly, the coming market crash and recession will occur with the balance sheets of the Treasury and Fed already extremely stretched. Hence, an extrication from this recession will not happen quickly or easily. All of the above makes this the most dangerous market ever.
This crash and ensuing economic downturn, which given history, logic and the data should happen soon; will alter the Fed's current stance on monetary policy. But it will happen too late to preclude a very steep decline in GDP.
Trump cannot push through his tax cutting agenda rather quickly it may be both Ms. Yellen and the Republicans that find themselves moving out of D. That's the direction some high-profile economist and former members on the FOMC want to go.
According to these academics, including Narayana Kocherlakota the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis from to , raising the inflation target just isn't enough. They want to put a time horizon on it as well. Their rational for doing both actions is to reduce the level of real interest rates, which they somehow believe is the progenitor for viable GDP growth. You see, once the Fed has taken the nominal Fed Funds Rate to zero, there isn't much more room to the downside unless these money manipulators assent to negative nominal interest rates.
But charging banks to hold excess reserves is fraught with danger, and so far this idea has been eschewed in this country and has been proven ineffectual in Europe. The next recession could be just around the corner and the Fed is thinking about ways to stimulate the economy given the fact that the amount of ammunition--the number of rate cuts until the F.
With very little leeway available to reduce borrowing costs, these mainstream academics want to facilitate more negative real interest rates by ensuring inflation is higher right from the start. The math is simple: But as to why these Keynesian academics are so convinced a lower real interest rate is better for economic growth is never clearly explained.
Probably because it is a nonsensical tenet and the biggest fallacy in all of central bank group think. Their spurious logic dictates that a lower unemployment rate is the primary cause of rising rates of inflation and that a higher rate of inflation is supportive for lowering the unemployment rate.
Exactly how this simple model arrives at that conclusion is never cogently explained; other than the mistaken belief that inflation and growth are synonymous terms. But history and genuine economics clearly illustrate that inflation does not bring about growth, nor does it necessarily lower the unemployment rate.
In fact, a rising rate of inflation often leads to higher rates of unemployment. This is the exact opposite of the Phillips Curve dogma held at the Fed, which dictates that a falling unemployment rate is the totality of inflation. The reality is that the humongous amount of new credit pumped into the system by global central banks has primarily landed in financial assets, not consumer price inflation. Central banks will purchase assets directly from the public or the Treasury instead of through the banking system.
In other words, getting new money into the public's hands causing an increase in broad-based money supply and inflation. The next stock market plunge and concomitant GDP collapse is approaching quickly. The Fed is preparing investors for its ultimate response; which will be to guarantee a higher inflation rate and to put a timestamp on it as well. But those efforts will only vastly exacerbate the stagflation condition suffered by the middle class.
Those that possess a keen insight to the direction of markets are aware of this phenomenon and are moving into precious metals now; while they are still able to afford them. The economic ruse that is run by Communist China is growing bigger by the day.
The formula behind what has been the Great Red Engine of global growth is really very simple: Print new money and funnel it through the state-owned banking system in order to entice businesses and individuals to incur a debilitating amount of non-productive debt. Historically speaking, countries that have utilized this ersatz form of economics have suffered a currency and bond market crisis.
But the command and control government of China always seems to be one step ahead of the laws of economics; and has been able to defer the inevitable day of reckoning due to its large currency reserves. However, those reserves have dwindled as the nation was forced into selling its dollar-based assets and defend the value of the yuan. To aid in propping up the yuan, China has deployed a unique cocktail of regulations and market trickery. In addition to outright currency manipulation, trading bands and strict capital controls, China has now resorted to simply making up prices for its currency.
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which is managed by the PBOC, changed the way it values the country's currency each morning and the way it is allowed to fluctuate through the day. The government currently sets a benchmark value for the yuan against a basket of currencies for which the yuan is then allowed to fluctuate in value by 2 percent during the day. You would assume the opening benchmark level would be based on the currency's closing value the day before.
But the Chinese government contends that the market just isn't getting it right. Therefore, they are introducing a "countercyclical variable". The omniscient Chinese government will now determine the opening benchmark value of the currency.
Because after all, the government of China is great at pretending it has a better view of supply and demand than millions of individuals voting with their wallets each day. But the currency manipulation doesn't end there. The Chinese government still has the less regulated offshore yuan to contend with. Investors that believe the yuan will fall in value will go short the currency outside of China.
This involves borrowing yuan in Hong Kong, swapping it for dollars and then repatriating it back at a more favorable rate. There are risks associated with borrowing the yuan. When these risks rise it can force investors to close out this trade, which has the effect of pushing the yuan higher. Therefore, in order to crush the Yuan bears, China followed up its countercyclical variable by sending margin costs for borrowing the offshore yuan through the roof and forcing a short squeeze.
The overnight CNH Hibor rate, spiked from 5. And with this it appears China's currency will live to die another day. We are living in a world where market manipulation has reached unprecedented proportions and any vestiges of the free market are extremely hard to find. This is especially true throughout the developed world. China sets a GDP target and then fudges with the number to ensure its accuracy.
It fabricates economic numbers and is the world leader in the production of alternate facts. Spinning a fairy tale as it pretends to move towards a more market-based system. But to imagine China can repel these economic forces forever would be to defy centuries of data that says otherwise. The offshore Yuan speculators represent the incipient dissolution of confidence in the government and its currency.
The Chinese government can only manipulate the message from the market for so long. But by the early 's money printing caused the government to abandon the dollar's gold backing, and stagflation soon followed. Heck, even the Roman Empire couldn't hold back the forces of inflation forever. This destruction of confidence in governments and their fiat currencies do not happen overnight.
But history is clear that markets always win and governments always lose…reality triumphs over fiction. China's fairy tale will come to an end. A pernicious end that will be shared by the Euro and the Dollar as well.
Those seeking a much better ending will need to park their wealth in gold. The bounce in Treasury yields witnessed after the election of Donald Trump is now decaying in the D. If the Fed continues to ignore this slow growth and deflationary signal from the bond market and continues along its current rate hiking path, the yield curve will invert by the end of this year and an equity market plunge and a recession is sure to follow. An inverted yield curve, which has correctly predicted the last seven recessions going back to the late 's, occurs when short-term interest rates yield more than longer-term rates.
Why is an inverted yield curve so crucial in determining the direction of markets and the economy? Because when bank assets longer-duration loans generate less income than bank liabilities short-term deposits , the incentive to make new loans dries up along with the money supply.
And when asset bubbles are starved of that monetary fuel they burst. The severity of the recession depends on the intensity of the asset bubbles in existence prior to the inversion. The Federal Reserve has traditionally controlled overnight lending rates between banks. Nevertheless, outside of these QE programs, the long end of the yield curve is primarily influenced by the inflationary expectations of investors. The yield curve inverts when central banks believe inflation is headed higher; but bond investors are convinced of the opposite.
The last two times the yield curve inverted was in the years and This next inversion will occur in the context of record high equity, real estate and bond market valuations that will require another government bailout. However, this time around the recession will commence with the balance sheets of the Fed and Treasury extremely overleveraged right from the start.
As you can see from the chart below, if the year Note yield orange line continues to fall along its current trajectory; and the Fed plods along with its avowed Dot Plot hiking path blue line , the yield curve should invert around the end of Market chaos and another brutal recession should soon follow. One of the most popular Wall Street myths is that long-term interest rates rise simply because the Fed is raising the Fed Funds Rate F.