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Markets chart a nasty habit of trashing wave counts and opinions, so when this impending wave count prechter off the rails, then most of the wave count has to be instantly trashed. We also used the free market price of oil called stripper rather than the government fixed elliott for prechter period it was fixed. Early on in our site we made the decision bitcoin to require chart analysts to have their wave counts comport with elliott "house count" -- as is the case with another Elliott Wave site on the net. Sell the Stock Market Rally! The intense bitcoin attention to this bull market works like a big speaker horn.

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I have never counted a more vertical 5th wave move than any other 5th wave. Com - Copyright - All rights reserved. Many economists measure it the other way around, but I prefer barrels per ounce because if you do it the other way around the numbers come out messier i. Click on that icon to change the background color of the chart from black to white or vice versa. The market would frequently make three advances and then have a correction. Is it cheap now that the price has come down?

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S Treasury chart by the end prechter Even if both rise in price because of inflation but oil rises more so the ratio normalizes bitcoin make money, or if both fall prechter price but oil falls less, etc. We need a big correction, and falling back to the Elliott sideways move is the bare minimum we would need, if another super leg up were still to happen. Learn about Elliott Management's activist investor involvement with Hess Corporation. So we need to look at the historical ratio and see chart a reasonable number of barrels per ounce is. More on labeling here This same method works bitcoin large timeframes as well as small timeframes.

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Slice, Dice, Hack and Slash will chop all the stock bulls up and get them ready for the fridge. No, not on this planet! The US dollar was due to rally already and the only question is how high? There is a very good chance that another 4th wave bullish phase is in progress in Minuette degree. We need this impending wave rally to play out and then we may be getting close to a potential wave 1 in Minor degree. Presidents can try and jawbone the US dollar up, but debt holders like China and Russia can throw a monkey wrench into that plan anytime they want.

I think we still may have weeks left, before we can expect a Minor degree wave 2 counter rally. In Greenspand days analysts watched the size of his suitcase to try and figure out how much paper work was in it about a rate change.

There is always a good chance that I may still be too early, but what I can say is that this recent bullish pattern is choppy as hell and would make a perfect ending diagonal. When that day arrives, you can bet I will be calling for the DJIA to charge back up to 34, which the majority will think is insane.

Everybody hates stocks back in late , and when stocks are at the extremes they love stocks. Only a very small minority invests like the seasoned contrarians do, even though many brag about being contrarian.

I consider insiders as contrarians and SEC rules require insiders to declare their trades. This is one degree lower than the peak and a full two degrees higher than the peak. Yesterday the SP pushed to another record high at That record high was followed by another wild downward move, that can be another zigzag. I extended the wave count a bit more, which may only take a few hours before the bottom trend line gets hit again.

I want the SP to slice through the bottom trend line with conviction, as a bigger correction is long overdue. The bullish phase from January the 16th sure is not an impulse, but it fits a diagonal pattern much better.

Not sorting out the last wave from the bull market and the first wave of a bear market makes any declining wave count very difficult to count out effectively. It seems this market is in a generational trend with the analysts painting us a perfect picture of the future.

Analysts are constantly directing your thinking, brainwashing technique to higher and higher market forecasts. Do you feel safe investing with the herd? Market participants only care about one thing and that is that the bull market continues. When the markets turn south, they can panic as a rush to the exits can happen. The intense media attention to this bull market works like a big speaker horn.

We have 15 sets of degree levels all in order from the largest down to the smallest, so guessing at what the big degree level is, is not an option. Sure we can play this cat and mouse game as any correction may not last very long.

We are coming up to months end, when things have a nasty habit of making surprise reversals. To give this market some credit, it seems to keep going and going and going, just like the Energizer Bunny. I will remain bearish until such a time this market shows us what it wants to do. Well, We could be in another one.

In other words Bitcoin patterns have to act the part of an impulse. Markets have a nasty habit of trashing wave counts and opinions, so when this impending wave count goes off the rails, then most of the wave count has to be instantly trashed. The wave patterns should take a little longer to play out, so we have to have a bit more patience as this bear market starts to get serious.

These numbers shift dramatically and can swing, many billions in just hours. They also have a COT report on Bitcoin futures traders positions, and so far not a single commercial trader has taken a single position in any short or long positions.

This speaks volumes as they show no interest in taking any side. As the US dollar crashes the Euro rallies. I use 5 of the simple patterns over and over which we can be adapted for any degree that I may be working on. In order for any wave 4 top in Intermediate degree to be confirmed we must have 5 waves down in Minor degree. We still have time left before we get close to a wave 1 in Minor degree, because a 5th wave can extend dramatically.

The commercials are still net short but that would have to change to a net long position once we get closer to any wave 1 in Minor degree. We still have 2 sets of 4th waves that need to play out, so until that happens, there is no sense in turning bullish on the US dollar too early.

I spent a couple of hours looking back to which was a major Deutschmark crash bottom, around the time that the cold war ended and the Berlin Wall crashed.

Shortly after the DM crashed it started to soar again. From the peak in the Euro crashed until early From this ugly bottom the Euro has enjoyed a bullish phase now starting its second year.

In I knew a bullish phase was coming, but hell if I could find a decent wave count that I could publish. Our present bull market sure looks like a high quality set of impulse waves, which are pointers to a new trend that should keep on compounding. So far there are only a few diagonal wave structures that have developed in their proper locations.

Once wave 2 in Minor degree has completed then I will look for three sets of waves, which would be an extended wave 3. Of course, this is all specific to the degree that we think we are working in. Even now, the commercials are already net short the Euro with the spread getting wider. This potential wave count is very speculative, but the only way to help confirm it, is by running it.

I changed the wave count to a big zigzag, with what I show containing a long wave 1. That could happen as soon as I post, but we should be setting up for another correction. We need a correction big enough so it can never come back and soar to record highs this year. This still could take a few years, but until it does this market is overbought and very expensive.

In this market that little double top has no real importance as it can get exceeded by the time I finish posting. The threat of a government shutdown has been going on for decades, and I have ignored all of them most of the time. At this stage of the game anything can happen. We need a big correction, and falling back to the December sideways move is the bare minimum we would need, if another super leg up were still to happen.

In the long run the SP will crash or turn into a big bear market. The higher these markets go the bigger and deeper these markets will head down to. Some say not to worry about insider selling as they are just taking profits. They key is capital preservation and the majority has never been good at doing that. I will stay with the diagonal wave count as that is the main pattern of the VIX as well.

The commercial traders are still net long by a long shot, and if the VIX continues north than this ratio should start to change as well.

We do have 2 open gaps below present prices, but they may not get closed on this trip. The majority of all Cryptos took another big hit this morning and Bitcoin was no exception.

The massive Meltdown and Specter chip vulnerability issue just adds to the problems. Their exchange got hacked and Bitcoins disappeared into thin air. Since late June gasoline futures have soared. There is a very good chance a correction is coming, but how long and how deep this impending correction can go is directly related to the degree we may be finishing.

When I look at this with a weekly chart, the pattern changes and it looks nothing like what we have. Gasoline is still heading up as I post, so it may take until the end of the month before it reacts.

What I will be looking for is to identify the correction when I can see another zigzag or flat type of pattern correction. Every trend comes to an end eventually. Palladium sure started out with a decent impulse wave structure, but that started to fall apart starting in early From then on Palladium converged in a wedge like pattern, with smaller and smaller wave structures.

Like gold, crude oil also had an impressive rally, but the oil price has now started to back off. Any normal correction could fall back down to the previous 4th wave of one lesser degree. Either way the oil price could decline along with the stock markets.

At times the oil price correlates with stocks as oil crashed just before stocks hit a major bottom. Even before the oil crash started, crude oil had a This ratio may hit 25 or After a great run, gold has now started to back off.

Sure, gold can keep right on trucking, but there could be a bigger correction than what the majority is anticipating. The markets always love to try and fool as many experts as it can and gold is no different. It may never happen, but corrections can go very deep with commodities. On the positive side gold can just keep grinding higher, brushing all the corrections to the side until a really big gold correction surprises us all.

Yesterday morning the DJIA produced another record high of 26,, after which the mini started a decline. Subminuette degree is 4 degree levels above the rocky bottom of my degree list, which I cut off at Miniscule degree. Not using a lower set of degree levels helps to judge potential extensions, and keeps me from wandering into a higher degree, before its time.

Doing the same thing as the herd will get you the same results as what they are going to get. All the DJIA Titanic has to do is list to its side and the retail investor will start to panic and pull monies out again. Constantly trying to forecast how much higher this market can go, is all Smoke and Mirrors. They have no clue how deep a Cycle degree bear market can go down to but when it does, these same experts will claim how much deeper the markets can crash. This is the February contract.

There is so little interest any any of these futures contracts that I may come to a point where I no longer can provide decent wave counts. Will we get another zigzag type bullish phase? This is very uncertain at this time. In the bigger scope of things the Crypto meltdown is what happens when a perceived asset class gets out of control. Even now another spike to the upside can still happen. Even though there was a sharp drop in the inflation rate the MIP did a good job of forecasting it, as the actual thick blue line shows.

The actual inflation rate tracked the extreme low almost exactly and held it consistently for nine months. On the tenth month inflation moved back into most likely territory.

The next chart is from December with the blue reality line added ten months later in September. Here we have a chart from January where we can see the performance over the year. We can see that the actual inflation rate has tracked the extreme low prediction almost precisely. Which fits well with the fact that Inflation has been lower than most economists and even the FED have expected. The one exception is Robert Prechter who has been touting Deflationary pressures.

This chart shows the projection from March with the reality line through March For the first six months the MIP did pretty well but then the actual inflation rate took off like a rocket zooming above our extreme high projection and then at the last moment falling back into the zone. To see how well the MIP has done in predicting inflation see some other previous MIP inflation forecasts with a reality line added.

Sign up for our Free E-zine and we will notify you when the new Charts are released! Yes, Notify Me when the new inflation forecast or article comes out! The annual inflation rate for the 12 months through the end of December was 2. Monthly inflation was actually disinflationary at Last month our MIP Chart was projecting a down move with a range from 2.

With the result coming in at 2. The CPI index moved from That was below the Over the months since the June peak in the CPI index, we have had fifteen months of monthly deflation annual disinflation i. This typically happens a few times every year generally in the 4th quarter , but in prices began falling during the summer, indicating growing deflationary forces due to FED tapering i.

This resulted in six months of annual deflation not just monthly where prices were actually lower than they were 12 months prior. In early inflation increased indicating that these deflationary forces had abated but over May and June, inflation began falling again with a bit of an upturn in July through September.

See Annual Inflation Rate Chart for more information. There are some fairly consistent seasonal trends. The first quarter of the year has most of the inflation while the last quarter of the year is generally flat to deflationary.

As a matter of fact, in the months since January there have been 17 negative months in January through June months and 59 negative months in the July through December months. So it appears that the majority of inflation occurs in the first half of the year and then moderates for the second half. One possible explanation is that during the fourth quarter many stores hold massive sales think Black Friday to reduce inventory before year-end for tax reasons.

If we look at only October, November and December, since January , there have been 12 deflationary 4th quarters and only 5 inflationary 4th quarters. Which is fairly amazing since the overall trend has been inflationary.

In the fourth quarter was The average for the all 4th quarters since was a deflationary