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I'm a bot, bleepdifficulty. The next one after happens at block mortgage In a crypto context, the pickaxe equivalent would be a company that manufactures equpiment used for Bitcoin mining. Personally I have stopped reinvesting, I'm at estimate weeks now. A moment's next should make it obvious that once estimate security is issued, whether it's a bitcoin bond or a dollar of base money, that security difficulty be held by someoneat every point in mortgage, until that security is retired. You got bitcoin treat mining like a "RPG" Character swinging a next and leveling up.

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Satoshi may disagree with you. Instead, they've opted for a giveaway to corporations and wealthy individuals, which will likely expand the deficit while doing virtually nothing for economic growth. Ideally you should update any spreadsheet calculator every so often with the most current information to get a return of the most ideal day to stop reinvest. So long as you keep this private key secure, your bitcoins are secure. Already, the available corporate surplus is being primarily driven into dividend payouts, share buybacks, and mergers and acquisitions, rather than real investment. So a return like that is possible and it has been possible in the last 4 years. The white paper is actually extremely readable, very short just 8 pages , and incredibly elegantly written.

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The hash is a long string of ones and bitcoin corresponding to the input, and difficulty to next the current level of "difficulty" specifically, a certain number mortgage leading zeros. Quite the interesting dynamic. You are looking at a summary of everything that happened when block estimate mined. Bitcoin will next halving events occur? Difficulty one next even necessarily estimate able to know how much money I held, unless I chose to make that information mortgage.

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Across history, the evaporation of paper wealth following periods of speculation has repeatedly taught a lesson that is never retained for long. Unfortunately, the lesson has to be relearned again and again because of what J. Galbraith referred to as "the extreme brevity of the financial memory. It encourages the belief that the paper itself is wealth, rather than the stream of future cash flows that investors can expect their securities to deliver over time.

On Saturday, December 16, the St. Louis Fed posted a rather disturbing tweet: This tweet was disturbing because it reflects a strikingly flawed understanding of financial markets. A moment's reflection should make it obvious that once a security is issued, whether it's a government bond or a dollar of base money, that security must be held by someone , at every point in time, until that security is retired.

The only way to get people to invest in something "more stimulating to the economy" than government bonds is to stop issuing government bonds. It takes only a bit more thought to recognize that securities, in themselves, are not net wealth.

Rather, every security is an asset to the holder, and an equivalent liability to the issuer. The IOU is a new security, but it doesn't represent new economic wealth. It's just evidence of the transfer of current purchasing power from Mary to Joe, and a claim on the transfer of future purchasing power from Joe to Mary. Neither the creation of securities, nor changes in their price, create net wealth or purchasing power for the economy.

Yes, an individual holder of a security can obtain a transfer of wealth from someone else in the economy, provided that the holder actually sells the security to some new buyer while the price remains elevated.

But in aggregate, the economy cannot consume off of its paper "wealth," because in aggregate, those paper securities cannot be sold without someone else to buy them, and those paper securities must be held by someone until they are retired.

What actually matters, in aggregate, is the stream of cash flows. Specifically, the activity that produces actual economic wealth is value-added production , which results in goods and services that did not exist previously with the same value. Value-added production is what actually "injects" purchasing power into the economy, as well as the objects available to be purchased.

I've detailed the mechanics of "stock-flow accounting" in previous commentaries, so it will suffice here to cut to the bottom line. If one carefully accounts for what is spent, what is saved, and what form those savings take securities that transfer the savings to others, or tangible real investment of output that is not consumed , one obtains a set of "stock-flow consistent" accounting identities that must be true at each point in time:.

Everything else cancels out because every security represents an asset of the holder and a liability of the issuer. Securities are not net wealth. Conceptualizing the "stock of real investment" as broadly as possible, the wealth of a nation consists of its stock of real private investment e. In an open economy, one would include the net claims on foreigners negative, in the U. A nation that expands and defends its stock of real, productive investment is a nation that has the capacity to generate a higher long-term stream of value-added production, and to sustain a higher long-term standard of living.

Understand that securities are not net economic wealth. They are a claim of one party in the economy - by virtue of past saving - on the future output produced by others. When paper "wealth" becomes extremely elevated or depressed relative to the value-added produced by an economy, it's the paper "wealth" that adjusts to eliminate the gap.

From the above discussion, it shouldn't be surprising that this measure is based on the ratio of equity market capitalization to corporate gross-value added. Specifically, the chart below shows the market capitalization of U. This measure is shown on an inverted log scale blue line, left scale.

We prefer a year horizon because that's where the "autocorrelation profile" of valuations the correlation between valuations at one point and valuations at any other point reaches zero. Importantly, this estimate of overvaluation is not somehow improved by accounting for the level of interest rates. The reason is that interest rates and economic growth rates are highly correlated across history. Lower interest rates only "justify" higher market valuations provided that the trajectory of future cash flows is held constant.

But if interest rates are low because growth rates are also low which we'll establish in the next section below , no valuation premium is "justified" at all. That's a much different proposition, however, than saying that this collapse will occur right away. If you watch financial television, you'll hear a great deal of chatter about the "fundamental support" below current prices. But attend carefully, and you'll find that nearly all of these arguments reduce to a list of factors that make the investment environment feel good at the moment.

These feel-good factors are being extrapolated into the future just as surely as Irving Fisher did in when he proposed that stocks had reached "a permanently high plateau. The best place to watch for cracks in this narrative is not valuations; they are already extreme, and are uninformative about near-term outcomes. Rather, it's essential to monitor the uniformity of market internals across a wide range of individual securities when investors are inclined to speculate, they tend to be indiscriminate about it.

We've already observed deterioration in our key measures of market internals, but I would still characterize that deterioration as "early.

When paper 'wealth' becomes extremely elevated or depressed relative to the value-added produced by an economy, it's the paper 'wealth' that adjusts to eliminate the gap. Extending our focus beyond immediate conditions, the chart below shows the total market capitalization of nonfinancial and financial U. The lowest red line shows total gross-value added NYSE: The green line shows 1.

The purple line is essentially the most "optimistic" value-line, in that no bear market in history, including the low, has failed to reach or violate that level. The upshot is this. Unfortunately, as in and , they are likely to observe an evaporation of this paper wealth. Nobody will "get" that wealth.

It will simply vanish. That's how market capitalization works. While our immediate market outlook remains only moderately negative, based on the still-early deterioration we observe in market internals, recognize that from a valuation perspective, we are now witnessing the single most offensive speculative extreme in history. The current extreme exceeds both the and highs. A second delusion, unleashed by exuberance over the prospect of tax reductions, is the notion that U.

The most frequent reference is to the years following the Reagan tax cut, followed closely by references to the Kennedy tax cuts.

The central feature of both the Reagan and Kennedy tax cuts was that they were enacted at points that provided enormous slack capacity for growth. Presently, the situation is the reverse. The structural drivers of U.

Corporate profits are already near record levels. We know from the repatriation holiday that tax breaks on foreign profits encouraged little but special dividends and share buybacks. Already, the available corporate surplus is being primarily driven into dividend payouts, share buybacks, and mergers and acquisitions, rather than real investment. Frankly, the notion that corporate tax cuts will unleash some renaissance in U.

The policy not only vastly favors the wealthy, but is even more preferential to wealthy individuals who take their income in the form of profits rather than wages.

The current tax legislation isn't some thoughtful reform to benefit Americans. It's a quickly planned looting through a broken window in our nation's character. On the subject of economic growth, an examination of the structural drivers of economic growth will illuminate the current situation. Real economic growth is the sum of two components: That means growth in the number of employed workers, plus growth in the level of output per-worker.

We can further break employment growth into "structural" and "cyclical" components. The structural part is determined primarily by demographics, particularly population growth and the age distribution of the working-age population. If civilian employment grows faster than the civilian labor force, the unemployment rate falls.

If the civilian labor force grows faster than civilian employment, the unemployment rate rises. Let's take a look at these components, and how they've changed over the decades. The first chart below shows the civilian labor force, on a log scale so trendlines of different slopes represent different growth rates. For much of the post-war period until about , the growth rate of the civilian labor force averaged about 1.

That growth slowed to 1. That figure is plus 65; the year that the first post-war baby-boomers hit retirement age. Since then, the growth rate of the civilian labor force has dropped to just 0. Now let's take a look at productivity growth. In the early years of the post-war era, labor productivity increased at a rather explosive 2. Growth then gradually slowed to about 1.

Over the past 14 years, U. One of the core drivers of long-term productivity growth is expansion in net U. As a general rule, booms in real U. Because payments have to balance, this means we also export fewer goods for any given level of imports.

The bottom line is that investment booms tend to be associated with larger trade deficits, so not surprisingly, booms in U. Now, add the current 0. The labor force component of structural growth is largely baked in the cake due to demographics, which in the absence of a substantial increase in the rate of immigration, leaves productivity growth as the main factor that could raise structural U. Still, given civilian labor force growth of just 0.

Anything greater than that would have to be driven by a decline in the unemployment rate from the already low level of 4. It's worth noting that U. What's remarkable about this is that nearly half of this growth is attributable to a decline in the U. The chart below shows what's going on.

The blue line shows actual 7-year real growth in U. The red line shows the "structural" component of GDP growth, excluding the effect of changes in the unemployment rate. The green line shows the contribution to 7-year growth from changes in unemployment. Put simply, in the absence of further declines in the U. If our policy makers are interested in boosting long-term structural U. Instead, they've opted for a giveaway to corporations and wealthy individuals, which will likely expand the deficit while doing virtually nothing for economic growth.

Since , the U. Given current structural economic constraints, and barring a further decline in the unemployment rate from an already low 4.

With regard to Bitcoin, my view is that the Blockchain algorithm itself is brilliant. Bitcoin itself, however, is just one application of Blockchain, and a rather awkward one. It's not unique, meaning that other competing "cryptocurrencies" can be established just as easily.

It's not fiat, meaning that no country requires it to be used as legal tender. But beyond anything else, its inefficiency is so mind-boggling that the continued operation of the Bitcoin network could plausibly contribute to global warming. So be careful to distinguish Blockchain from Bitcoin.

The Blockchain algorithm will undoubtedly become a useful component of validating transactions, tracking supply chain movements, and all sorts of other applications, but Bitcoin itself is likely to become the same thing to cryptocurrencies as Visicalc was to spreadsheets, or if you're younger, what MySpace was to social networking.

Bitcoin essentially uses a decentralized network of computers anyone can join that "listen" for transactions that are broadcast over the network. Each computer can accept and attempt to validate any "block" of transactions, which is done by discovering a particular "hash" for those transactions. Because it's guesswork, you need a lot of computing power in order to get there first. If you want to estimate how much Bitcoin you could mine with your mining rig's hash rate, the site Cryptocompare offers a helpful calculator.

The photo below is a makeshift, home-made mining machine. The graphics cards are those rectangular blocks with whirring circles. Note the sandwich twist-ties holding the graphics cards to the metal pole. This is probably not the most efficient way to mine, and as you can guess, many miners are in it as much for the fun and challenge as for the money. And there is no limit to how many guesses they get. Let's say I'm thinking of the number There is no "extra credit" for Friend B, even though B's answer was closer to the target answer of In Bitcoin terms, simultaneous answers occur frequently, but at the end of the day there can only be one winning answer.

Typically, it is the miner who has done the most work, i. The losing block then becomes an "orphan block. Now imagine that I pose the "guess what number I'm thinking of" question, but I'm not asking just three friends, and I'm not thinking of a number between 1 and Rather, I'm asking millions of would-be miners and I'm thinking of a digit hexadecimal number.

Now you see that it's going to be extremely hard to guess the right answer. What is Bitcoin Mining? The number above has 64 digits. Easy enough to understand so far. As you probably noticed, that number consists not just of numbers, but also letters of the alphabet.

In order to understand what these letters are doing in the middle of numbers, let's unpack the word "hexadecimal. As you know, we use the "decimal" system, which means it is base This in turn means that every digit has 10 possibilities, In a hexadecimal system, each digit has 16 possibilities.

But our numeric system only offers 10 ways of representing numbers That's why you have to stick letters in, specifically letters a, b, c, d, e, and f. In a hexadecimal system, these are the values of each digit:. The above chart is just for background. If you are mining Bitcoin, you do not need to calculate the total value of that digit number the hash.

You do not need to calculate the total value of a hash. Remember that ELI5 analogy, where I wrote the number 19 on a piece of paper and put it in a sealed envelope? In Bitcoin mining terms, that metaphorical undisclosed number in the envelope is called the target hash. What miners are doing with those huge computers and dozens of cooling fans is guessing at the target hash.

A nonce is short for "number only used once," and the nonce is the key to generating these bit hexadecimal numbers I keep talking about. In Bitcoin mining, a nonce is 32 bits in size--much smaller than the hash, which is bits.

In theory you could achieve the same goal by rolling a sided die 64 times to arrive at random numbers, but why on earth would you want to do that?

The screenshot below, taken from the site Blockchain. You are looking at a summary of everything that happened when block was mined. The nonce that generated the "winning" hash was The target hash is shown on top. The term "Relayed by: Antpool" refers to the fact that this particular block was completed by AntPool, one of the more successful mining pools.

As you see here, their contribution to the Bitcoin community is that they confirmed transactions for this block. If you really want to see all of those transactions for this block, go to this page and scroll down to the heading "Transactions. There is no minimum target, but there is a maximum target set by the Bitcoin Protocol.

No target can be greater than this number:. Here are some examples of randomized hashes and the criteria for whether they will lead to success for the miner:. You'd have to get a fast mining rig or, more realistically, join a mining pool--a group of miners who combine their computing power and split the mined bitcoin. Mining pools are comparable to those Powerball clubs whose members buy lottery tickets en masse and agree to share any winnings.

A disproportionately large number of blocks are mined by pools rather than by individual miners. In other words, it's literally just a numbers game. You cannot guess the pattern or make a prediction based on previous target hashes.

As discussed, the easiest way to acquire Bitcoin is to buy it on an exchange like Coinbase. Alternately, you can always leverage the "pickaxe strategy". Or, to put it in modern terms, invest in the companies that manufacture those pickaxes. In a crypto context, the pickaxe equivalent would be a company that manufactures equpiment used for Bitcoin mining. Companies that manufacture these products include AMD and Nvidia. At the time of writing, the author held no positions in any of the companies mentioned in this piece.

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