Wanted to do something sustaining and liquor. It is chemo therapy for the terminally liquor. July 30, at 8: Is that a bad thing? Mine lasted 6 months and it was under an awning pointed at the front door. July 31, at The new bitcoin cannot be used bitcoin an ATM outside of Germany to obtain cash.
I told you this was going to be the outcome. Where that balance lies depends very much on individual circumstances, and on location. Trump is 'OK' with releasing memo, official says. As an indication that the interests of the private banking system and public central authorities are not always aligned, consider the actions of the Bavarian Banking Association in attempting to avoid the imposition of negative interest rates on reserves held with the ECB:. Facebook hits record high after earnings. When The Economist wrote about a global currency being launched in , they perhaps did not have a precise inkling back then on how it would come about. Female student, 12, taken into custody after shooting two year-old classmates inside Los Angeles middle
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Many people are investing without understanding the risks. This is where we find ourselves at the moment — on bitcoin cusp of phase two of the credit crunch, sliding into the same unavoidable constellation of conditions we saw inbut on a much larger scale. News Update - Afternoon. As liquor power of money creation is bitcoin the highest significance, and that power is currently in private hands, any attempt to threaten that power would almost certainly be met liquor considerable resistance from powerful parties. Flu death toll hits in the UK:
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Negative rates in the historical record are symptomatic of times of crisis when conventional policies have failed, and as such are rare. Their use is a measure of desperation:. First, a policy rate likely would be set to a negative value only when economic conditions are so weak that the central bank has previously reduced its policy rate to zero.
Identifying creditworthy borrowers during such periods is unusually challenging. How strongly should banks during such a period be encouraged to expand lending? The goal of such rates is to force banks to lend their excess reserves. The assumption is that such lending will boost aggregate demand and help struggling economies recover. Using the same central bank logic as in , the solution to a debt problem is to add on more debt.
Yet, there is an old adage: With the world economy sinking into recession, few banks have credit-worthy customers and many banks are having difficulties collecting on existing loans. The shale oil bust has left many US banks with over a trillion dollars of highly risky energy loans on their books. The very low interest rate environment in Japan and the EU has done little to spur demand in an environment full of malinvestments and growing government constraints. Doing more of the same simply elevates the already enormous risk that a new financial crisis is right around the corner:.
Banks rely on rates to make returns. As the former Bank of England rate-setter Charlie Bean has written in a recent paper for The Economic Journal, pension funds will struggle to make adequate returns, while fund managers will borrow a lot more to make profits.
This comes from tasking central bankers with keeping the world economy growing, even while governments have cut spending. The existing low interest rate environment has already caused asset price bubbles to inflate further, placing assets such as real estate ever more beyond the reach of ordinary people at the same time as hampering those same people attempting to build sufficient savings for a deposit.
Negative interest rates provide an increased incentive for this to continue. In locations where the rates are already negative, the asset bubble effect has worsened.
For instance, in Denmark negative interest rates have added considerable impetus to the housing bubble in Copenhagen , resulting in an ever larger pool over over-leveraged property owners exposed to the risks of a property price collapse and debt default:.
Where do you invest your money when rates are below zero? The Danish experience says equities and the property market. Considering that risky property markets are the norm in Scandinavia, Copenhagen represents an extreme situation:. This should come as no surprise: Yet it is the negative rates that have made this unprecedented surge in home prices feel relatively benign on broader price levels, since the source of housing funds is not savings but cash, usually cash belonging to the bank.
The Swedish property market is similarly reaching for the sky. Swedish banks were quoted in the local press as opposing the move. Apart from stimulating further leverage in an already over-leveraged market, negative interest rates do not appear to be stimulating actual economic activity:. At a growth rate of 5 percent over the period, private consumption has been similarly muted. Simply put, a weak economy makes interest rates a less powerful tool than central bankers would like.
Fuelling inequality and profligacy while punishing responsible behaviour is politically unpopular, and the consequences, when they eventually manifest, will be even more so.
Unfortunately, at the peak of a bubble, it is only continued financial irresponsibility that can keep a credit expansion going and therefore keep the financial system from abruptly crashing.
The price to pay is that the systemic risks continue to grow, and with it the scale of the impacts that can be expected when the risk is eventually realised. Politicians desperately wish to avoid those consequences occurring in their term of office, hence they postpone the inevitable at any cost for as long as physically possible. Central bankers attempting to stimulate the circulation of money in the economy through the use of negative interest rates have a number of problems.
For starters, setting a low official rate does not necessarily mean that low rates will prevail in the economy, particularly in times of crisis:. The experience of the global financial crisis taught us that the type of shocks which can drive policy interest rates to the lower bound are also shocks which produce severe impairments to the monetary policy transmission mechanism.
Suppose, for example, that the interbank market freezes and prevents a smooth transmission of the policy interest rate throughout the banking sector and financial markets at large. In this case, any cut in the policy rate may be almost completely ineffective in terms of influencing the macroeconomy and prices. This is exactly what we saw in , when interbank lending seized up due to the collapse of confidence in the banking sector.
We have not seen this happen again yet, but it inevitably will as crisis conditions resume, and when it does it will illustrate vividly the limits of central bank power to control financial parameters. At that point, interest rates are very likely to spike in practice, with banks not trusting each other to repay even very short term loans, since they know what toxic debt is on their own books and rationally assume their potential counterparties are no better. Widening credit spreads would also lead to much higher rates on any debt perceived to be risky, which, increasingly, would be all debt with the exception of government bonds in the jurisdictions perceived to be safest.
Low rates on high grade debt would not translate into low rates economy-wide. Given the extent of private debt, and the consequent vulnerability to higher interest rates across the developed world, an interest rate spike following the NIRP period would be financially devastating. The major issue with negative rates in the shorter term is the ability to escape from the banking system into physical cash.
Instead of causing people to spend, a penalty on holding savings in a banks creates an incentive for them to withdraw their funds and hold cash under their own control, thereby avoiding both the penalty and the increasing risk associated with the banking system:. Western banking systems are highly illiquid, meaning that they have very low cash equivalents as a percentage of customer deposits….
Solvency in many Western banking systems is also highly questionable, with many loaded up on the debts of their bankrupt governments. Banks also play clever accounting games to hide the true nature of their capital inadequacy. We live in a world where questionably solvent, highly illiquid banks are backed by under capitalized insurance funds like the FDIC, which in turn are backed by insolvent governments and borderline insolvent central banks. This is hardly a risk-free proposition.
Yet your reward for taking the risk of holding your money in a precarious banking system is a rate of return that is substantially lower than the official rate of inflation. In other words, negative rates encourage an arbitrage situation favouring cash. In an environment of few good investment opportunities, increasing recognition of risk and a rising level of fear, a desire for large scale cash withdrawal is highly plausible:.
From a portfolio choice perspective, cash is, under normal circumstances, a strictly dominated asset, because it is subject to the same inflation risk as bonds but, in contrast to bonds, it yields zero return. It has also long been known that this relationship would be reversed if the return on bonds were negative.
In that case, an investor would be certain of earning a profit by borrowing at negative rates and investing the proceedings in cash. Ignoring storage and transportation costs, there is therefore a zero lower bound ZLB on nominal interest rates. Zero is the lower bound for nominal interest rates if one would want to avoid creating such an incentive structure, but in a contractionary environment, zero is not low enough to make borrowing and lending attractive.
This is because, while the nominal rate might be zero, the real rate the nominal rate minus negative inflation can remain high, or perhaps very high, depending on how contractionary the financial landscape becomes. Central authorities find themselves caught in the liquidity trap, where monetary policy ceases to be effective:.
In the euro zone, for instance, the main interest rate is at 0. If deflation gets worse then real interest rates will rise even more, choking off recovery rather than giving it a lift.
If nominal rates are sufficiently negative to compensate for the contractionary environment, real rates could, in theory, be low enough to stimulate the velocity of money, but the more negative the nominal rate, the greater the incentive to withdraw physical cash.
Hoarded cash would reduce, instead of increase, the velocity of money. In practice, lowering rates can be moderately reflationary, provided there remains sufficient economic optimism for people to see the move in a positive light. However, sending rates into negative territory at a time pessimism is dominant can easily be interpreted as a sign of desperation, and therefore as confirmation of a negative outlook.
Under such circumstances, the incentives to regard the banking system as risky, to withdraw physical cash and to hoard it for a rainy day increase substantially. Not only does the money supply fail to grow, as new loans are not made, but the velocity of money falls as money is hoarded, thereby aggravating a deflationary spiral:. A decline in the velocity of money increases deflationary pressure. Each dollar or yen or euro generates less and less economic activity, so policymakers must pump more money into the system to generate growth.
As consumers watch prices decline, they defer purchases, reducing consumption and slowing growth. Deflation also lifts real interest rates, which drives currency values higher. Obviously, this is not the desired outcome of policymakers. But as central banks grasp for new, stimulative tools, they end up pushing on an ever-lengthening piece of string.
Japan has been in the economic doldrums, with pessimism dominant, for over 25 years, and the population has become highly sceptical of stimulation measures intended to lead to recovery. Unfortunately, lowering interest rates in times of collective pessimism has a poor record of acting to increase spending and stimulate the economy, as Japan has discovered since their bubble burst in For about a quarter of a century the Japanese have proved to be fanatical savers, and no matter how low the Bank of Japan cuts rates, they simply cannot be persuaded to spend their money, or even invest it in the stock market.
They fear losing their jobs; they fear a further fall in shares or property values; they have no confidence in the investment opportunities in front of them. So pathological has this psychology grown that they would rather see the value of their savings fall than spend the cash.
Fear is a very sharp driver of behaviour — easily capable of over-riding incentives designed to promote spending and investment:. When people are fearful they tend to save; and when they become especially fearful then they save even more, even if the returns on their savings are extremely low.
Brexit obviously only added to the fears and misgivings about the future. Deflation is so difficult to overcome precisely because of its strong psychological component. When the balance of collective psychology tips from optimism, hope and greed to pessimism and fear, everything is perceived differently. Measures intended to restore confidence end up being interpreted as desperation, and therefore get little or no traction. As such initiatives fail, their failure becomes conformation of a negative bias, which increases the power of that bias, causing more stimulus initiatives to fail.
The resulting positive feedback loop creates and maintains a vicious circle , both economically and socially:. There is a strong argument that when rates go negative it squeezes the speed at which money circulates through the economy, commonly referred to by economists as the velocity of money.
People are taking their money out of the banking system to stuff it under their metaphorical mattresses. The empirical data support this view — the velocity of money has declined precipitously as policymakers have moved aggressively to reduce rates.
The Bank estimates that 21pc to 27pc of everyday transactions last year were in cash, down from between 34pc and 45pc at the turn of the millennium. Yet simultaneously the demand for banknotes has risen faster than the total amount of spending in the economy, a trend that has only become more pronounced since the mids.
The same phenomenon has been seen internationally, in the US, eurozone, Australia and Canada…. The prevalence of hoarding has also firmed up the demand for physical money. At a time when savings rates have not turned negative, and deposits are guaranteed by the government, this kind of activity seems to defy economic theory. And that benefit must exceed the returns and security offered by putting that hoarded cash in a bank deposit account.
History teaches us that central authorities dislike escape routes, at least for the majority, and are therefore prone to closing them, so that control of a limited money supply can remain in the hands of the very few. In the s, gold was the escape route, so gold was confiscated.
As Alan Greenspan wrote in In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through monetary inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold.
If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The existence of escape routes for capital preservation undermines the viability of the banking system, which is already over-extended, over-leveraged and extremely fragile.
This time cash serves that role:. Ironically, though the paper money standard that replaced the gold standard was originally meant to empower governments, it now seems that paper money is perceived as an obstacle to unlimited government power….
Because of this, the more ardent statists favor the abolition of paper money and a monetary system with only electronic money and electronic payments. We can therefore expect cash to be increasingly disparaged in order to justify its intended elimination:. Every day, a situation that requires the use of physical cash, feels more and more like an anachronism. Like gold, cash is physical money. Like gold, cash is still fetishized.
And like gold, cash is a costly drain on the economy. Their study included the nugget that consumers spend, on average, 28 minutes per month just traveling to the point where they obtain cash ATM, etc. But this is just first-order problem with cash. The real problem, which economists are starting to recognize, is that paper cash is an impediment to effective monetary policy, and therefore economic growth. Holding cash is not risk free , but cash is nevertheless king in a period of deflation:.
Conventional wisdom is that interest rates earned on investments are never less than zero because investors could alternatively hold currency. Yet currency is not costless to hold: It is subject to theft and physical destruction, is expensive to safeguard in large amounts, is difficult to use for large and remote transactions, and, in large quantities, may be monitored by governments. The acknowledged risks of holding cash are understood and can be managed personally, whereas the substantial risk associated with a systemic banking crisis are entirely outside the control of ordinary depositors.
The capital controls put in place in other locations, for instance Greece , also underline that cash in a bank may not be accessible when needed. The majority of the developed world either already has, or is introducing, legislation to require depositor bail-ins in the event of bank failures, rather than taxpayer bailouts, in preparation for many more Cyprus-type events, but on a very much larger scale.
People are waking up to the fact that a bank balance is not considered their money, but is actually an unsecured loan to the bank , which the bank may or may not repay, depending on its own circumstances. Your checking account balance is denominated in dollars, but it does not consist of actual dollars.
It represents a promise by a private company your bank to pay dollars upon demand. If you write a check, your bank may or may not be able to honor that promise. The poor souls who kept their euros in the form of large balances in Cyprus banks have just learned this lesson the hard way.
If they had been holding their euros in the form of currency, they would have not lost their wealth. Even in relatively untroubled countries, like the UK, it is becoming more difficult to access physical cash in a bank account or to use it for larger purchases.
Reasons for the withdrawal may be required, ostensibly to combat money laundering and the black economy:. They all know me in there. In France, in the aftermath of terrorist attacks there, several anti-cash measures were passed, restricting the use of cash once obtained:.
The threshold below which a French resident is free to convert euros into other currencies without having to show an identity card will be slashed from the current level of 8, euros to 1, euros.
In addition any cash deposit or withdrawal of more than 10, euros during a single month will be reported to the French anti-fraud and money laundering agency Tracfin. Tourists in France may also be caught in the net:. France passed another new Draconian law; from the summer of , it will now impose cash requirements dramatically trying to eliminate cash by force.
French citizens and tourists will only be allowed a limited amount of physical money. They have financial police searching people on trains just passing through France to see if they are transporting cash, which they will now seize.
This is essentially the Shock Doctrine in action. Central authorities rarely pass up an opportunity to use a crisis to add to their repertoire of repressive laws and practices. However, even without a specific crisis to draw on as a justification, many other countries have also restricted the use of cash for purchases:. One way they are waging the War on Cash is to lower the threshold at which reporting a cash transaction is mandatory or at which paying in cash is simply illegal.
In just the last few years. Other restrictions on the use of cash can be more subtle , but can have far-reaching effects, especially if the ideas catch on and are widely applied:. The term has a broad definition and includes Goodwill stores, specialty stores that sell collectibles like baseball cards, flea markets, garage sales and so on.
They are allowed to take only electronic means of payment or a check, and they must collect the name and other information about each customer and send it to the local police department electronically every day. The increasing application of de facto capital controls, when combined with the prevailing low interest rates, already convince many to hold cash. The possibility of negative rates would greatly increase the likelihood.
We are already in an environment of rapidly declining trust, and limited access to what we still perceive as our own funds only accelerates the process in a self-reinforcing feedback loop. More withdrawals lead to more controls, which increase fear and decrease trust, which leads to more withdrawals. This obviously undermines the perceived power of monetary policy to stimulate the economy, hence the escape route is already quietly closing.
In a deflationary spiral, where the money supply is crashing, very little money is in circulation and prices are consequently falling almost across the board, possessing purchasing power provides for the freedom to pursue opportunities as they present themselves, and to avoid being backed into a corner. The purchasing power of cash increases during deflation, even as electronic purchasing power evaporates. Governments greatly dislike cash, and increasingly treat its use, or the desire to hold it, especially in large denominations, with great suspicion:.
Why would a central bank want to eliminate cash? For the same reason as you want to flatten interest rates to zero: Calls for the eradication of cash have been bolstered by evidence that high-value notes play a major role in crime, terrorism and tax evasion. In a study for the Harvard Business School last week, former bank boss Peter Sands called for global elimination of the high-value note. Cash is largely anonymous, untraceable and uncontrollable, hence it makes central authorities, in a system increasingly requiring total buy-in in order to function, extremely uncomfortable.
They regard there being no legitimate reason to own more than a small amount of it in physical form, as its ownership or use raises the spectre of tax evasion or other illegal activities:. The insidious nature of the war on cash derives not just from the hurdles governments place in the way of those who use cash, but also from the aura of suspicion that has begun to pervade private cash transactions.
In a normal market economy, businesses would welcome taking cash. After all, what business would willingly turn down customers? But in the war on cash that has developed in the thirty years since money laundering was declared a federal crime, businesses have had to walk a fine line between serving customers and serving the government. And since only one of those two parties has the power to shut down a business and throw business owners and employees into prison, guess whose wishes the business owner is going to follow more often?
The assumption on the part of government today is that possession of large amounts of cash is indicative of involvement in illegal activity. Centuries-old legal protections have been turned on their head in the war on cash. Those fortunate enough to keep their cash away from the prying hands of government officials find it increasingly difficult to use for both business and personal purposes, as wads of cash always arouse suspicion of drug dealing or other black market activity.
And so cash continues to be marginalized and pushed to the fringes. Despite the supposed connection between crime and the holding of physical cash , the places where people are most inclined and able to store cash do not conform to the stereotype at all:. Are Japan and Switzerland havens for terrorists and drug lords? High-denomination bills are in high demand in both places, a trend that some politicians claim is a sign of nefarious behavior.
Yet the two countries boast some of the lowest crime rates in the world. The cash hoarders are ordinary citizens responding rationally to monetary policy. The Swiss National Bank introduced negative interest rates in December The aim was to drive money out of banks and into the economy, but that only works to the extent that savers find attractive places to spend or invest their money.
Japan, where banks pay infinitesimally low interest on deposits, is a similar story. That explains why Japanese went on a safe-buying spree last month after the Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates on some reserves. That was the last straw, and having been patient long enough, the German public has started to move. As it turns out, one was enough…. And they are absolutely right; we can only wish more Americans showed the same foresight as the ordinary German….
Everyone else, our condolences. The internal stresses are building rapidly, stretching economy after economy to breaking point and prompting aware individuals to protect themselves proactively:. If this play has a third act, it will involve the abolition of cash in some major countries, the rise of various kinds of black markets silver coins, private-label cash, cryptocurrencies like bitcoin that bypass traditional banking systems, and a surge in civil unrest, as all those guns are put to use.
The speed with which cash, safes and guns are being accumulated — and the simultaneous intensification of the war on cash — imply that the stress is building rapidly, and that the third act may be coming soon. Despite growing acceptance of electronic payment systems, getting rid of cash altogether is likely to be very challenging, particularly as the fear and state of financial crisis that drives people into cash hoarding is very close to reasserting itself.
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