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You could have a slowdown that leads to a financial crisis, a replay of In , we had a financial panic and the Central Banks got together and bailed out Wall Street, so each bailout gets bigger than the one before it. Each response is bigger than the one before going down this chronological sequence. The next one is going to be the biggest of all. Well, then you go to QE, but they already did that. Get me out of dollars. Get me into gold, silver, fine art, land.
Crypto-currencies, if you like. The point is, the IMF is slow and clunky. Why do you need more than that? We can let you sell your stocks. This plan is actually in place and I describe how. Just to wrap up, I expect a weaker economy than the mainstream in Perhaps, a stock market crashing based on that alone. I also expect another financial panic. Confidence in the U. They know that there is plenty of risk out there that you just laid out, but they are growing tired of watching just about everything outperform precious metals.
What are you saying these days to people who might be thinking about selling gold and say, joining the party in the stock markets? Look, gold just finished a four-year plus bear market. It lasted from August to December And by the way, my friend Jim Rogers, one of the greatest commodities traders in history, co-founder of the Quantum Fund with George Soros, a legendary commodities trader, he said to me … and he has a lot of gold.
And I think that was very good advice. It started in December Now, here are the facts, gold goes up and down. People get discouraged and they buy gold and then some hedge fund or China comes along in the gold futures market and slams the price down.
I understand the discouragement. So, the truth of the matter is are the first back-to-back years of gold gaining since , although at that point, it was already off the top. Yeah, it did, but it was way down, way off the peak in September of that year. But now we have two back-to-back years of gold going up very significantly.
The fundamentals are good. Their technicals are good. The supply and demand situation is good. And the last point I want to make, Mike, is that gold is doing this performance against headwinds.
The Fed has been raising rates. Gleason is a hard money advocate and a strong proponent of personal liberty, limited government and the Austrian School of Economics. A graduate of the University of Florida, Gleason has extensive experience in management, sales and logistics as well as precious metals investing. He also puts his longtime broadcasting background to good use, hosting a weekly precious metals podcast since , a program listened to by tens of thousands each week.
In relation to a lot of other folks, even better than before! But the bad news is that this might not be the case much longer…. Buyers in Emerging Markets, in which gold prices are making new highs relative to their own fiat paper, are also paying more for their stash.
This is because even when facing a less advantageous exchange rate, emerging market gold customers are still solidly on the buy. Additional evidence indicates that we are just now entering the second year of what could become a lengthier — and considerably more powerful than-expected upside run. After an initial surge off the cycle lows, the price tends to move methodically higher for the first two years. During that period, we have found that a lower week moving average envelope provides support.
This was most recently tested in December … Except for , a trailing one-week stop after the 55th week, kept participants in the market until the first week after the top. You might want to commit that last part to memory. If the 8-year cycle pattern continues to play itself out, not only could this nascent gold bull have a long ways to run in terms of time and price, but an attentive investor could use the kind of trailing stop-loss discussed, in order to stay with the trend as long as possible, holding onto significant gains before offsetting all or most of their holdings for a good profit.
That idea was to create a stable and reliable revenue stream for oil exporters. Things worked well for quite awhile, but in recent years, for a number of reasons, the status quo has been increasingly called into question.
A detailed rationale is beyond the scope of this report, but here are a few of the elements:. All these factors and more mean that right now and continuing during the coming years, the U. The key elements of this sea-change as they relate to you? While just about everything in life is based upon probabilities, the odds right now strongly favor that the next leg of the secular bull run in the metals is underway. He shares his resource sector observations with readers, the media, and North American investment conference attendees.
I used to have a colleague who would sing the praises of the USA as being the least corrupt nation on earth. In response I would tell her it is one of the most corrupt with money buying political favours and overtly influencing political decision-making the lobbying system , while the regulatory system is dominated by the very bankers and financiers it should be designed to protect the average American from.
Fox and henhouse immediately spring to mind. So what is the result? Redfearn left a 13 year stint at JP Morgan to assume a key role in regulating banks, investors and traders. Redfearn looks like yet another fox being sent to guard the henhouse. His appointment undermines confidence even if he intends to serve with integrity.
Instilling confidence ought to be a priority at the SEC. To date, not one high level bank executive, has been prosecuted for misdeeds related to the Financial Crisis. This despite plenty of the shareholders SEC officials are supposed to be protecting having lost their shirts.
To cap it off, a high-profile story which broke in uncovered agency staff and contractors spending an inordinate amount of time watching pornography on the job. Office of Inspector General investigators looked at a 5-year period and found 33 people had violated policy by watching X-rated content on federal computers.
You would think leadership there might be embarrassed. Which brings us back to the appointment of Mr. It demonstrates the SEC remains tone deaf at a minimum, and completely captured at worst. Until the SEC and its people prove they actually care about keeping the investment banks and financial insiders honest, they should probably do their hiring somewhere besides Wall Street. Otherwise people will understandably assume federal regulators are there to protect powerful firms under their jurisdiction, and not Americans at large.
This includes writing extensively on the bullion markets and their intersection with policy and world affairs. In some sectors of the economy this decline is readily apparent. Grocery shopping, property prices, salary levels etc. All currencies nowadays are fiat in that they have no backing, which is why some economists call for a return to a gold standard.
This is probably impractical without a massive gold price increase and, even then, would probably be overrun very quickly by ever increasing consumer demand for goods and services. It is seen as the reason China is assumed by many to be building its gold reserves at a far higher rate than it has been reporting, but this may also, if true, be just as support for a future petro-yuan — with the yuan exchangeable for gold — as a very competitive Chinese bid to replace the petrodollar!
So perhaps gold investors should treat the latest rise in the gold price purely as a wealth protection exercise. That is what gold is good at over time. If the dollar declines further then gold will rise further, as will all the major precious metals — and most other commodities too.
But regardless, gold has moved up sharply in dollar terms in the past few days despite mixed economic data out of the USA. Much of this increase so far seems to have passed silver by and the gold: We still stand by our forecast that the gold: However, also bear in mind that gold and silver had a strong start in , but then tended to pull back. For those interested in my precious metals stock price forecasts for the year ahead do look at a series of articles i have published on Seekingalpha. The terms and conditions for publication of articles on Seeking Alpha prevent me from posting them here, but follow the links to read them on that site.
Here follows a recent article by Frank Holmes looking at what may be some unrealised factors which could see gold move significantly higher this year and in the future. The price of gold and gold mining stocks were very competitive in All of this occurred even as large-cap stocks regularly closed at all-time highs and cryptocurrencies invited massive speculation. The Fear Trade, of course, is driven by low to negative real interest rates—when inflation erodes away at government bond yields—deficit spending, a weaker U.
I believe these forces will only intensify in After all, the December rate hikes in , and were all advertised well in advance by the Fed and were fully discounted by the market. This means that the rate hike was a nonevent, because gold was already priced for it.
Gold markets, in other words, could be forecasting slower economic growth as a result of higher borrowing costs. After all, the U. Consumer spending is up, optimism is high and we have a robust labor market with unemployment at a year low of 4. The current cycle could turn out to be just as benign, but that would make it a huge exception, not the norm. As of today, that spread drew up to around 0.
The past seven U. To be clear, we still have a way to go before the yield spread inverts. But if this observation concerns you—if you believe the business cycle is in fact getting a little long in the tooth—it might make sense to ensure you have a 10 percent weighting in gold bullion and high-quality gold mutual funds and ETFs.
When the cost of living has eaten away at government bond yields, investors have tended to seek more attractive stores of value, including gold.
Which gauge should we be looking at? It includes not just consumer prices but also producer prices, commodity prices and financial asset prices.
When we use this dataset, we find that—surprise! Whereas the November CPI came in at 2. The implications here are huge. Three percent is higher than the five-year Treasury yield, currently around 2.
But there are even more ways to measure inflation, and some show it being higher than the UIG. According to the alternate gauge, consumer prices in November rose close to 10 percent year-over-year, or 7. So which metric do you believe? The investment case for gold suddenly becomes very attractive. This is the time of year for precious metals price predictions and these are flowing thick and fast, and the majority of such we have seen so far this year are positive for virtually the whole complex.
Indeed all the precious metals seem to have have started the year off in decently positive territory, but will it last? We are already beginning to see heavy hands in the futures markets which could, given the monetary resources available, keep precious metals prices depressed — a pattern we have seen in the past, although the encouragement here is that we have at least seen prices rise in general over the past two years.
However the rises have been relatively small in the metals themselves. Bur maybe they are at the early stages of another bull market. We have been making our own predictions on the websites for which we write, including this one, but some require exclusivity so the only way you can read what we have to say on these is by accessing these websites directly. Thus we would direct our North American readers to the U.
Gold Bureau website, which is blocked to non-North American-based precious metals investors unless you have something like the Tor web browser which uses Firefox installed on your computer. Tor allows you to browse anonymously and simulate access from any specific country, so for those looking to access North American sites which are blocked to non-residents, the browse can be set for your access to appear to be from the USA itself.
It can run off a USB flash drive, comes with a pre-configured web browser to protect your anonymity, and is self-contained portable. The software is perfectly legal and if you wish to download it a link is here: Tor Browser — Download. My latest one is: There are plenty of other analysts out there who will be giving their opinions on where Precious meta;s are headed this year.
Wishing all readers of lawrieongold a prosperous and the hope that precious metals perform at least as well as we are forecasting throughout the year. The first trading days of are confirming signs of renewed investor interest in the precious metals sector after a long period of malaise. Gold and silver markets entered the year with some stealth momentum after quietly posting gains late in The alternative investing world was enthralled by Bitcoin in The recently passed tax cuts will cause hundreds of billions — perhaps eventually trillions — of dollars to be repatriated back to the United States.
For years, many corporations have hoarded business assets overseas in more favorable tax environments. The good news is that dollars are coming back home and getting reinvested in capital projects, wage increases, new hiring. The potentially bad side effect is that higher inflation increasingly shows up in consumer prices. The flood of deficit-financed stimulus sets the economy up for a short-lived spurt of gains… followed by longer duration debt and inflation pains.
For now investors are still enjoying gains, as reflected by the ongoing strength of the stock market. But inflationary pressures are already building in raw materials markets. The supply and demand fundamentals for precious metals are improved in Low gold and silver prices over the past few years have hurt the mining industry.
Although it has continued to operate existing mines — sometimes even at losses — it has slashed exploration and development of new projects. That will means years of stagnating or even declining output ahead. Metals Focus projects mining output of gold in will be 3, tonnes, a slight decrease from Analysts expect a more significant drop could occur in Demand for silver is also more variable, with investment demand being the biggest wild card.
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